We are currently in between two high pressure areas. This makes for a fairly pleasant setting with temperatures of up to 20°C on a regular basis. On Sunday it will be warm in several places in the Benelux with variable clouds. Later in the day, the chance of strong thunderstorms increases for the (north) east of the Benelux. These thunderstorms can locally cause a lot of rain in a short time with even a chance of heavy hail. Some weather models show 2 to 5 cm of hail in certain places in the Netherlands. A set-up with thunderstorms that we should therefore take a closer look at.
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Quite a bit of instability Sunday evening
It seems like a rather atypical setting and actually it is. Thanks to a northern air current, it will be locally summery in the Benelux on Sunday. Usually that is a cold corner and we barely reach summer temperatures with a northern current. This time it is different and that also seems to immediately result in fireworks in terms of thunderstorms. Various weather models calculate sufficient instability in the form of CAPE on Sunday evening. Locally about 1500 J/KG is available.
The French and Dutch weather models calculate the first showers at the Dutch-German border in the evening period. These showers immediately become heavy and can also produce hail in a short time after abundant rain. The Dutch weather model HARMONIE is quite large and calculates potential hail of 3-5 cm over the east and north of the Netherlands. Other regions in the Benelux remain unaffected by these heavy showers with their peripheral phenomena.
During the evening, the thunderstorm-like showers will initially remain active above the north of the Netherlands. Only after midnight does it gradually calm down in the region and the chance of thunderstorms with hail decreases. Wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are also possible during the thunderstorms.
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The message Storm Chances Sunday, May 21, 2023 appeared first on NoodweerBenelux.